Bitcoin's block reward halves every 210,000 blocks (about four years), and the market has often moved to that same rhythm. Pick a date and see where it sat in the cycle.
The curve is an illustration of the historical bull-bear rhythm (rise → top → fall → bottoming). The marker shows where the chosen date sits in time within the four-year cycle.
These phase splits come from the rhythm of the past three cycles and are not a price prediction or investment advice. The halving is a protocol fact, but price is shaped by many factors, and history need not repeat.
| Round | Date (approx.) | Block reward change |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2012-11-28 | 50 → 25 BTC |
| 2nd | 2016-07-09 | 25 → 12.5 BTC |
| 3rd | 2020-05-11 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC |
| 4th | 2024-04-20 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC |
| 5th (est.) | around 2028-04 | 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC |
The exact halving time depends on block speed, so the estimate can be off by a few weeks; the on-chain block height is what counts.
Reading the cycle is only step one. To actually buy or sell, you need a Binance account you can fund and withdraw from. Register with code BN771 for up to 20% off trading fees*.
Sign up on Binance with BN771 →Bitcoin isn't issued at a constant rate. The protocol says that for every 210,000 blocks mined (roughly four years), the new-coin reward miners collect per block is cut in half. That drives Bitcoin's yearly inflation steadily lower, and it has given the market a "once every four years" psychological rhythm.
In the first three cycles, the main bull leg mostly showed up between six and eighteen months after the halving, with tops clustering 12–18 months out; what usually followed was a long drawdown and bottoming stretch, until the next halving drew near and momentum built again. What this tool does is turn "how far is today from the last / next halving" into a plain time position.
One thing worth spelling out: this is a time position, not a price signal. The halving is a fixed protocol fact, but price is pushed around by macro conditions, liquidity, policy and sentiment — far too many factors — and the historical pattern need not repeat. Don't treat "X months after the halving" as a buy or sell order, and definitely don't add leverage on the back of it. The tool helps you build a sense of the cycle; the decision still has to fit your own risk tolerance.
If you're just starting out, read the full guide to Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle first, then come back and read this locator alongside it — it'll be clearer what each stretch tends to mean and where beginners tend to slip up in each one.